Student of MS(Economics), Sukkur IBA and

Lecturer, Department of Commerce,

Government Islamia Arts and Commerce College, Sukkur.

Email: ahmed.mangrio@gmail.com

Why to simulate the whole economy?

In many ways simulation is mostly been used as method of research for proving or disproving some theories in economics with usage of mathematical models on data. But with the advent of multi-core high speed processors and online communications as well as transactions, there is room to make a simulation ‘of’ economy not simulation ‘in’ economy. Though it seems difficult but carries a high potential of answering many questions, some of which are:

1. Interdependence and relation between different theories of economics.
2. Calculation and interdependence of economic variables.
3. Evaluation as well evolution of different economic rules.
4. Mergers with experiments of other fields such as psychology, sociology, etc.

How to simulate a whole economy?

In economics we have been studying a thousand of indices, theories and variables. But in this case we have to first create a ‘transaction log’ of every economic institution. Then we have to put general economics rules in that system for checking.

Every economic institution whether it is person, firm or government gives some product or service to another economic institution and in return other economic institution pays for it. For example, a person working in textile factory produces cloths and those clothes are worn by another person.

We can say that sometimes we pay and did not get any service such as pennies given to a beggar. In this case we can say that we are receiving some service that we do not require (as begging of beggar or guitar music played by beggar). This will be treated as economic activity though not desired.

Now, If we take the payments out and draw the diagram we conclude that

In this case all services received by an economic institution are equal to all services provided to others by it. Means income is equal to expenses Assumptions: No Savings.

Here is model with savings:

The use of online accounts and plastic money can enable us to know incomes and expenses of a single person and/or economic institution.

We can calculate the services provided by each economic institution in this way:

If this balance sheet of Services is reported by all economic institutions then this will tell us many things in future.

The list of organizations which can help to simulate the whole economy:

• 1. People
  2. Firms/shops
  3. Banks
  4. Central Banks
  5. IFIs.
  6. Security Agencies.

The list of inventions which can help to simulate economy:

• 1. Computers with Internet and Cloud Computing
  2. ATM Networks with debit/credit cards
  3. Mobile Phone Networks with Funds Transfer Facility
  4. POS Terminals with Shopping Facility
  5. Business Accounting Softwares with Bar-coded products.
  6. Home Budget Softwares with SmartCards

Which things are hindering simulation of economy?

• 1. Different conventions used.
  2. Cooperation among organizations

Note: “These ideas are purely created from my own mind not through empirical scientific research. These may prove wrong now or with the passage of time. These are basically created as food-for-thought-for-research purpose only.”

Signature:

(Ahmed Ali Mangrio)

Dated: 15-06-2009

In National Database and Registration Authority everyday data of citizens captured at different offices. The accuracy of data is critical for citizens because the data in CNIC contains a special legal value of particulars for him and others. And accuracy is also most important for NADRA because they re-use the data for verification, liking a family, issuing for Passport or computerized driving license or even for statistical purposes at national level. On the other hand NADRA has committed itself to be self-sustaining organization and for that purposes it has to be efficient much like a for-profit concern. If NADRA become able to know what 100% quality costs then it can change other control variables that affect quality.

Literature Review:

Quality Costs Constitute following costs:

Prevention: These costs include quality system designing and stack-holder trainings and evaluations.

Appraisal: These costs include process control procedures, inspection/testing.

Internal failure: Rework costs when low quality found within organization.

External failure: Rework costs when low quality found by customers.

(Cost Accounting, Third Edition Ralph S. Polimini et al page 443-444)

Limitations:

The study will account for the sample of Assistant Managers from different offices of NADRA in Sukkur Region.

The study will be limited to cost of quality up to data capturing only. Does not include the rework costs of internal or external failures.

Managerial Implications:

A function of Quality Cost will be defined through the help of regressions in terms of controllable variable that will benefit management to forecast the quality costs ( with sub-divisions of costs)  at different capacities.

Where Qi is the function of ith quality cost at level X (output), alpha is intercept and Beta is coefficient of correlation.

Method of Research:

A questionnaire will be prepared to test following hypotheses from line managers (Assistant Managers in NADRA)

Question

Null Hypothesis

Ho

Alternative Hypothesis

H1

What is the effect of training on data capturing quality?

There is no effect of training on data capturing quality.

There is effect of training on quality in data capturing.

What is the effect of inspection on data capturing quality?

There is no effect of inspection on data capturing quality.

There is effect of inspection on data capturing quality.

For testing of First Hypothesis we have to exclude biasness from it.

Q.1.     What is the average number of applicants for data entry of your center?

Ans.     _________

Q.2.     What is average daily revenue of your center?

            Rs.___________

Q.3.     On which level the quality in data entry at your office is laying in your opinion? (Be realistic)

Level

Lowest              1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  Highest

Q.4.     What is minimum POSSIBLE time (in normal conditions) that an applicant can have for data capturing?

Ans.     Time in minutes: _________

Q.5.     What will be the maximum time (in normal conditions) that a customer can have to capture 100% accurate data? (Be realistic.)

Ans.     Time in minutes: ________

Q.6.     How much time regular training is necessary for DEOs for 100% quality data capturing?

Ans.     Hours _____ + minutes _____

Q.7.     How much amount of fee will be lost for sparing that time for training?

Rs.___________________ (No. of possible customer x fee)

Output at 100% quality = working hours / Ans of Q3 x Average Rev /Avg Applicants

Quality costs if 100% quality = Avg Fee x Avg Customers can be dealt in time of      

                                                                                                training

                                                another option = Ans of Q.5

General
Research Problem:

There are
some factors which have an effect on the probability of selection of college by
students for admission. If the management of college able to know the
relationship between decision of admission taken by student for the college and
the factors affecting it, then the college can turn the situation in its favor
by changing controllable factors.

Why students select a particular college for studying?
What are those factors which effect this decision?

1.     Does preference of parents of students
effect the selection of college for admission by student?

2.     Does location of college effect
the selection of college for admission by student?

3.     Does preference by friends of
students effect the selection of college for admission by student?

4.     Does ranking of college effect the
selection of college for admission by student?

5.     Does the advertising by college
effect the selection of college for admission by student?

6.     Does knowledge of student about
teachers of college effect the selection of college for admission by
student?

7.     Does college of a family member effect
the selection of college for admission by student.

Sample will be representative of colleges in Sukkur
District.

·       
Govt. Islamia Arts & Commerce College Sukkur

·       
Govt. Islamia Science College Sukkur

·       
Govt. Girls Degree College Sukkur

·       
Govt. Boys Degree College Sukkur

·       
Govt.
Elementary College
of Education (Boys)
Sukkur

·       
Govt.
Elementary College
of Education (Girls)
Sukkur

·       
Govt. Agha Nizamuddin Girls
Degree College Sukkur

·       
Govt. Atta Hussain Shah
Degree College Rohri

·       
Govt. Degree College Pano Akil

It is
assumed that student admitted in the college has taken this decision on certain
grounds which are needed to be correlated. Students will be asked what has
effected them to be student here and at what degree.

The goal of
research is to calculate the function of students admitted to the college. If
any investor wants to open a college in Sukkur then he may be able to forecast
future quantity of admitting students. The principals of colleges in this area
can also determine the admission pattern with respect to factors affecting it.

By Ahmed Ali Mangrio

Lecturer – Department of Commerce,

Govt. Islamia Arts & Commerce College, Sukkur.

E-mail: ahmed.mangrio@gmail.com

Propositions: (1) All italicized paragraphs are not the part of story.  (2) This story actually targets to create a link between natural thinking of a lay man and thinking of a person from scientific research (italicized).

Once upon a time there was a nice and hard-worker young boy who desired to study in a college nearby his residence. So he decided to plan well in advance and went outside the home and found a college in locality. He went inside the college and looked around in college and he found that there is large number of students but many were discussing that they should leave the college and many were asking for admissions.

In research this situation is called the presence of a main problem or question i.e. in this case it is “Will the joining of the college will benefit me or not?”

He thought there that one day my selection of college may prove wrong therefore he decided to take time and review his decision. But he was not able to decide the grounds of decision because he has seen contradicting discussions at the same time. Then he went to a person who was a senior student and was doing a research and asked him that how he can decide to study in this college or not and, will this decision prove fruitful to him or not? The senior student looked briefly at his odd cowboy-like clothes and smilingly said that why you are just asking from me go and ask from everybody if majority favors in studying in this college then you should study otherwise not. He surprised at such a difficult thing that he has to do, so he went home and slept in dismal.

The need of research arrives in the above paragraph if the researcher wants to ascertain the facts about the solution to the main problem.

On next mourning he awaked and he was happy with an idea that he will ask from his neighboring uncle who was very kind. He went to uncle and said the yesterday’s story. Uncle laughed much at his inexperience and said to him that the short cut is that you can use the experience of persons like you from the past records or you should ask from an expert who has all such data. Uncle being already in hurry told him before going away that you should find such data from newspapers or library.

Then the need for Literature Review arrives or going through the experiences of other persons which had the same main problem like ours.

He previously depressed was now felling somehow relaxed by knowing the way out. He gone to the library and asked the librarian that how he can get such data. The librarian gave him the statistical reports of college rankings published in press. At first look he didn’t understood the reports but after studying for a while he begin to grasping it. There was not much data except the ranking in that material. He found the college was much higher in ranking few years ago but it began to loose its ranking every year after that. Once again he worried and that this ranking may be much lower when he will have his degrees in hand or might not be this situation occurs at all.

The Literature Review from different sources such as media or libraries reveals some more facts and figures which generate some specific questions i.e., in this case “why the ranking has gone down.”

He came back to home and in bed at night he was thinking that he should ask from as much students as he can in a day so that why not to join or what’s the problem in this college. Then he would be sure about his decision. He decided to ask from students that what are problems with this college which had lowered the ranking of the college but he also decided that he will ask from senior students only because they will be able to assess the problems correctly because of their longer period of stay in college. He slept with a hope that tomorrow he will be able to decide.

Then the researchers arrive at the Research Question i.e., in this case “what problem lowered the ranking” This question testifies a hypothesis i.e., “there must be a problem which had lowered the ranking of college.” The researcher must decide his sample of population (in this case senior students) and its sample size (as many as in a day) which can provide the accurate as well as cost-beneficial solution to the research problem.

On next day he brought up early and made several chits of paper and on each chit he put his question that to be answered. Whole day exercise of distributing and receiving back his chits has made him tired but in bed he looked at glance some chits that were stating many reasons on many chits but he was not able to understand what does the majority saying at that moment.

Different kind of surveying techniques (chits with question in this case) reveal different results (open answers) but open ended questions result in much complicated data and the issue of compilation of facts also arrives in large datasets of population (answered chits).

On next day he sorted all chits and separated the chits which were stating common issues. At the end he arrived that out of 175 chits 70 chits were saying that the faculty is not good, 50 were saying that administration is not serious to studies and 40 were saying that there is no problem in college and 15 actually joked at him.

Researcher has to compile and summarize data gathered in surveys into understandable information to arrive at possible (most likely) answer to the research problem.

After having all the information about the ranking and problem of lowering of ranking he decided to tell the college authorities that they should correct this problem otherwise he will not choose the college. He went to college and got an appointment with a senior professor of the board. During meeting he told him that your college is continuously losing due to faculty and administration. The professor felt this statement annoying and said him how he can say that. Then he put the whole story before the professor and professor agreed with him and said to him that gentleman you just know your side of story. You must hear my story too, that is few years ago we had very high rankings and because of that students rushed to our college for admissions. This high number of students pressurized our work load but due to some funding problems we were not able to hire more faculty-members and overload on faculty resulted in dissatisfaction and stress and ultimately lesser performance. But now by realizing the situation we strived hard for funding and now we are going to increase the number of faculty by 50% in next month. Now you have the other side picture. Go and decide what you like.

After answering one research question new research questions arise in this case these questions might be:

“Does faculty’s performance is really lowered due to work overload.”

“Does the college is retaining the same qualitative faculty when its ranking was higher.”

“Does any other condition such as possibility of poor administration has annoyed faculty and resultantly their performance deteriorated.”